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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still